Figured I would write a post simply to have some continuity with the monthly archives…
Well what’s the point of fundamental and technical analysis anyhow? What is the difference if you are correct or not? Just follow the trend and you would have smiled all the way to the bank since August.
Who cares about slowing growth? Who cares that foreclosures are up on the order of 35% year over year? Who cares that inputs are STILL inflated? Who cares that the Dow Transports (see Dow Theory) has been selling off from a double top in the 4th quarter?
It can be painful to be right but early. Hence I am watching and waiting. The fundamentals will prevail. We are in a midst of an economic slowdown characterized by the inflationary effect of excess liquidity combined with lack of input capactiy. I would not be surprised to see a perod of Stagflation, where inflation and slow growth combine to create higer interest rates in order to mop up excess liquidity (see protracted dollar decline…ignore the little bear pop it is getting)
Which begs the question…what next for the markets? Do tell where we go from here? Well check out these prognosticators…nowhere but up according to these pearls of wisdom!
Time will indicate whether or not basic economic forces of supply and demand…inflated housing inventory, tight input supply, slowing end consumer demand, slowing (if not recessionary) auto sector, underwater mortgages ofter subprime rate re-adjustments will equate to the supposedly inevitable slowdown.
“If you dedicate yourself to a market thesis…invariably…you will be proven right. Question is…will you still have a shirt when you are right…”
-from some wise guy
